I want to start off the discussion with the latest poll. Jack Layton and the NDP are now in second place with 24 per cent support. What is behind the sudden rise in the NDP's fortunes?
With noone else jumping in, I will take a stab at it. Jack Layton has promised to reopen the constitution and scrap the official languages act in favour of bill 101. That is popular with separatists, non-hardcore, who are tiring of Duceppe and looking for another horse to ride. It may translate into four seats.
Is anybody else out there?
If not, I will take advantage of the free airtime. Now that the NDP has emerged from the fog, they will be the subject of a full frontal assault by the Bloc in the next few days. It will be vicious and will provoke some pushback. I think Layton's promise to reopen the constitution, which has had little play outside Quebec, could hurt his campaign in ROC
What do you two think? Are we going to see gains in the House of Commons?
Actually, Ignatieff performed extremely well in the French debates. But what is interesting is that since that time, we have had a ton of coverage saying nothing is moving. Now we see this seismic shift. Unfortunately for the NDP it will not translate into many seats because the on-the-ground organisation in tight races is not there. In some cases, the splits will actually elect other federalist parties ie. Justin Trudeau in Papineau as the NDP is only fishing in the Bloc pool
Apologies for the delay folks! Internet issues.
Welcome Ian. We are talking about the NDP's resurgence.
Realistically, in the 11 days ahead, the pushback will be brutal. i just don't see where they are going to gain. If we assume the Liberals will keep the majority of the Montreal island seats, the NDP has little wiggle room in Quebec.
Where do you think he will gain, Goldy?
The NDP looks to pick up in BC and on the prairies with some seats coming in Ontario as well. But, the ON numbers are not great yet for the NDP.
I don't see gains for the NDP in Ontario. They are in trouble in the North and will lose at least two seats in Hamilton and Toronto. Where are they picking up the new ones.
Layton's overall popularity and good trend lines can be accredited to five plus years of working at this. Canadians know and trust him. It's now starting to show not only in QC, but national numbers as well.... and forget not 5pts in QC = 1 national point.
Two seats lost in Hamilton? Perhaps two lost up North. But as far as I can tell the Southern Ont seats are pretty secure.
But it all comes down to seats. at the end of the day, the surge in Quebec comes at the expense of the Bloc, and Canadians outside Quebec are not too crazy about reopening the constitution. That is a mug's game.
I'd look at Brant as well.
Hamilton Mountain and Olivia Chow's seat are both at risk.
On the NDP's northern seats, do you think the gun registry issue will play a role in how voters decide to cast their vote?
Surge in QC at expense of the Bloc should be good news for everyone. The NDP is a federalist party. And, Chow is not at risk: that is spin. Mountain on the other hand is always a tough fight, but Stoney Creek would fall first before mountain.
NDP in the North: you bet it will. Thunderbay is the problem spot. Gun registry fight hurt them.
No. I think that is an issue only for gun lovers. the rest of us (the vast majority) support the gun registry, (especially women) I think the abortion issue will prove to be a greater deal breaker for the Tories.
That is an old battle resurrected by politicians who need wedges to win.
You wish. Just why have the Tories cut off funding for Planned Parenthood
Yeah, did Haper commit to funding IPPF for his mandate? 6million a year is a lot of money.
Why will he not fund Planned Parenthood and why is he insisting that all references to abortion be deleted from government documents
That's NOT the issue. "Abortion", that is. The issue is one of funding for the International Planned Parenthood Federation. Brad Trost claims he helped kill funding for it: did he? And will the Tories commit to stable funding diring their "stable" majority?
We still don't have an answer on Planned Parenthood. The women and men of this country will rise up. In the 21rst century it is an embarassment when the government refuses to include reproductive rights as part of a maternal health strategy.
Goldy, you are correct. BUT, the Conservatives have made up fiscal room that is impossible too!
The G8 muskoka initiative says you cannot refer to abortions. How can you counsel young pregnant women on options when you exclude that one?